Ten years following the UK embarked on a hasty public vote that polarised the nation and triggered chaos, a advisory emerges from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical might transpire with a national vote on a united Ireland, sparking disturbances for which nobody is equipped.
That represents the warning from two prominent writers from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Not Ready
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a possibly contentious and transformative referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can gather momentum rapidly," the commentator said. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our islands remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have analysed the political, financial and societal reasons for any constitutional change in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the matter with a roadshow of lectures that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles all parties, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We must avoid a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose implications have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily split population where the losing side are resistant to losing and the people who have won lack clarity precisely what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a public vote on Irish unification if it seems probable that a most voters would approve.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups say that moment is imminent, and a organisation named pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but both governments and unionists play down the possibility, resulting in ambiguity if and when there could be a national vote.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements for and against unity has masked the lack of informed dialogue, said McBride.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the idea but the actual thinking which may surpass that to achieve it has largely not occurred. A lot has gone on in academia but scarcely any elected officials or activists seek to involve themselves even with the essentials. As an example, what type of nation should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, no writer advocates unification or the existing arrangement. Both writes two pieces that seek impartiality in laying out the rationale for a unified Ireland and the case opposing it, assembling economic and social data, past examples and structural examples.
Debates range over national emblems, taxes, health services, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of loyalist violence. The objective is to educate and provoke discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," said the writer. "Debate implies an recognition of the notion that there could be valid points on either side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate say they prefer unification but reject increased taxation or adopting a alternative symbol to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin should establish what the proposal from nationalist groups is aside from just stating: 'We want a united Ireland and we value you'," remarked O’Toole.
Likelihood of Public Vote
McBride believes a national vote in his generation is likely and that it could happen unexpectedly. "It is possible just a mad or a bad or a feckless government minister who declares: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have credible, justified perspectives, he stated. "Somebody will prevail on this issue and the other side will ultimately not succeed but both parties has possesses something to acquire from the other's positions."
Call for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster must join the discussion, stated the analyst. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It's a British issue equally as it is an Irish question."
